Yesterday I offered some initial data showing that world economic competitiveness is not that high. I showed that the top performing countries--in terms of GDP and growth--remained (pretty much) the same between 1990 and 2015. This during a time when many developing countries emerged into the global economy and even benefitted from commodity booms.
The point of my work here is to show how the last generation of economic development has not done anything to really change the global order; the competition is fixed and poorer countries are highly unlikely to get anywhere soon if the competition stays as it is.
So, here is further information. The table shows which countries are in the top 'division' of the world GDP league today (in 2016). It reveals what % of world GDP was associated with that country in 2016 and in 1990, and what percentage of 1990-2016 GDP growth happened in that country.
Notice a few things. First, 4 of the top 5 countries in 1990 are still in the top 5 in 2016 (China is the solo new entrant). Second, the top 5 countries in both 1990 and 2016 accounted for over 50% of world GDP (the other 170 or so countries accounted for the other 50%). Third, the top 5 countries in 2016 accounted or over 50% of global GDP growth between 1990 and 2016. Fourth, only 6 new countries were able to enter the top 20--the 'first division' if you will--over an entire generation (all the other incumbents held their places).
You think about these numbers and you start to realize why I say the world economy is not that competitive; at least at the top, the winners stay as winners. So: where is the space for developing countries to actually challenge for space at the top? Is there any space?
Let me offer a thought to take us to a new blog over the weekend: Developing countries have become overly dependent on AID as the key to their development, and the advice of aid organizations as the basis of their development strategies. Aid, in 2015, from OECD member states, was $135 bln... a record. In current prices, world GDP in 2o15 was $74,311.46. So; AID was less than 1/10th of a percent of world GDP (can that be right? it's World Bank data).
Do developing countries really think that they will actually become competitive on the basis of funding crumbs--and advice from the crumby funders? THE FUNDING AGENCIES REPRESENT COMPETITORS WHO DO COMPETE, AND IT SEEMS LIKE THEY ARE NOT PROVIDING EITHER THE MONEY OR ADVICE TO MAKE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES REAL COMPETITORS IN THEIR GLOBAL GROWTH COMPETITION.
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